A SARIMAX coupled modelling applied to individual load curves intraday forecasting
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Modeling and Forecasting Intraday Electricity Load
This paper aims models electricity load curves for short-term forecasting purposes. A broad class of multivariate dynamic regression model is proposed to model hourly electricity load. Alternative forecasting models, special cases of our general model, include separate time series regressions for each hour and week day. All the models developed include components that represent trends, seasons ...
متن کاملFuzzy Inference Applied to Spatial Load Forecasting
Forecasting the future electric demand and its geographical distribution is a prerequisite to generate expansion-planning scenarios. The load growth pattern is related with the urban structure and its land-use. The model for simulating urban structures must be explicitly dynamic and must contains mechanisms for linking its macrostructure to micro behaviours. The paper presents a methodology, wh...
متن کاملForecasting Daily Electricity Load Curves
Short term electricity load forecasting is a well-known problem, and many neural computing approaches for solving it have been proposed in recent years. In this paper, we argue in favour of its decomposition into two subproblems, and propose a solution for one of them: the prediction, en bloc, of the daily load profile, or configuration, for the different hours of a particular future date. From...
متن کاملOn particle filters applied to electricity load forecasting
In this paper, we are interested in the online prediction of the electricity load, within the Bayesian framework of dynamic models. We offer a review of sequential Monte Carlo methods, and provide the calculations needed for the derivation of so-called particles filters. We also discuss the practical issues arising from their use, and some of the variants proposed in the literature to deal with...
متن کاملNeural Networks Applied to Spatial Load Forecasting in GIS
Quality spatial load forecasting is a major prerequisite for energy distribution systems planning. The load evolution outline depends on the urban expansion and its land usage. This paper presents a methodology for knowledge extraction of the data provided by a GIS (Geographical Information Systems) platform. The main goal consists of developing studies that lead to the understanding of the inf...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Applied Statistics
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0266-4763,1360-0532
DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2013.785496